AAF Fantasy Rankings PPR (ROS)

 

QB
Projected Starters

1. John Wolford
2. Garrett Gilbert
3. Luis Perez
4. Logan Woodside
5. Josh Woodrum
6. Philip Nelson
7. Christian Hackenberg
8. Matt Simms

QB’s to keep an eye on

9. Aaron Murray
10. Alex Ross
11. Brandon Silvers
12. Matt Linehan
13. Dustin Vaughan
14. Zach Mettenberger
15. Mike Bercovici
16. Trevor Knight
17. Blake Sims
18. Austin Appleby
19. Marquise Williams

RB

1. Jhurell Pressley
2. Akeem Hunt
3. Trent Richardson
4. Ja’Quan Gardner
5. Zac Stacy
6. Joel Bouagnon
7. Kenneth Farrow II
8. Branden Oliver
9. Tarean Folston
10. Ladarius Perkins
11. Denard Robinson
12. D’ Ernest Johnson
13. Aaron Green
14. De’Veon Smith
15. Paul James
16. Larry Rose
17. Justin Stockton
18. Terrence Magee
19. Matt Asiata
20. Rajion Neal
21. Terrell Watson
22. David Cobb
23. Lawrence Pittman
24. Trey Williams
25. Tim Cook
26. Akrum Wadley
27. Terrell Newby
28. Ryan Green
29. Ty Isaac
30. Brandon Ross

WR

1. Charles Johnson
2. Mekale McKay
3. Quinton Patton
4. Rashad Ross
5. Malachi Jones
6. Brian Brown
7. Fabian Guerra
8. Kenny Bell
9. Seantavius Jones
10. Jalin Marshall
11. Dontez Ford
12. Reece Horn
13. Francis Owusu
14. Demarcus Ayers
15. Greg Ward Jr.
16. Richard Mullaney
17. Kayaune Ross
18. Adonis Jennings
19. Amba Etta-Tawo
20. L’Damian Washington
21. Josh Huff
22. Alonzo Moore
23. Ishmael Hyman
24. Tobias Palmer
25. De’Mornay Pierson-El
26. Jordan Leslie
27. Chris Thompson
28. Alton “Pig” Howard
29. Ervin Philips
30. Justin Thomas
31. Marquis Bundy
32. Freddie Martino
33. Kameron Kelly
34. Rannell Hall
35. Bug Howard
36. DeVozea Felton
37. Quan Bray
38. Dres Anderson
39. Nelson Spruce
40. John Diarse

TE

1. Gavin Escobar
2. Anthony Denham
3. Gerald Christian
4. Cole Hunt
5. Nick Truesdell
6. Connor Davis
7. Thomas Duarte
8. Charles Standberry Jr.
9. Scott Orndoff

 

 

 

 

 

AAF Fantasy Rankings (PPR)

 

QB
Projected Starters

1. Garrett Gilbert
2. Luis Perez
3. Josh Woodrum
4. Aaron Murray
5. John Wolford
6. Christian Hackenberg
7. Logan Woodside
8. Phillip Nelson

QB’s to keep an eye on

9. Trevor Knight
10. Dustin Vaughan
11. Zach Mettenberger
12. Alex Ross
13. Blake Sims
14. Mike Bercovici
15. Matt Simms
16. Austin Appleby
17. Marquise Williams
18. Matt Linehan

RB

1. Trent Richardson
2. Akeem Hunt
3. Joel Bouagnon
4. Jhurell Pressley
5. Ja’Quan Gardner
6. Zac Stacy
7. Kenneth Farrow II
8. D’Ernest Johnson
9. Denard Robinson
10. Branden Oliver
11. Tarean Folston
12. Ladarius Perkins
13. Aaron Green
14. Terrence Magee
15. Justin Stockton
16. Rajion Neal
17. Akrum Wadley
18. Larry Rose
19. Terrell Watson
20. Matt Asiata
21. Tim Cook
22. Paul James
23. Trey Williams
24. De’Veon Smith
25. David Cobb
26.Ryan Green
27. Terrell Newby
28. Lawrence Pittman
29. Ty Isaac
30. Brandon Ross

WR

1. Charles Johnson
2. Mekale McKay
3. Fabian Guerra
4. Kenny Bell
5. Malachi Jones
6. Brian Brown
7. Freddie Martino
8. Amba-Etta-Tawo
9. Francis Owusu
10. Demarcus Ayers
11. Adonis Jennings
12. Josh Huff
13. Seantavius Jones
14. Jalin Marshall
15. Kayaune Ross
16. Dontez Ford
17. Reece Horn
18. Ishmael Hyman
19. Greg Ward Jr.
20. DeVozea Felton
21. Marquis Bundy
22. L’Damian Washington
23. Justin Thomas
24. De’Mornay Pierson-El
25. Sam Mobley
26. Quinton Patton
27. Bug Howard
28. Alton “Pig” Howard
29. Josh Stewart
30. Laquvionte Gonzalez
31. Rannell Hall
32. Rashad Ross
33. Kameron Kelly
34. Jordan Leslie
35. Demore’ea Stringfellow
36. Quan Bray
37. Marvin Bracy-Williams Jr.
38. Montay Crockett
39. James Quick
40. Dres Anderson
41. Nelson Spruce
42. Darius Prince
43. Devin Lucien
43. Richard Mullaney
44. Chris Thompson
45. John Diarse

TE

1. Gavin Escobar
2. Cole Hunt
3. Busta Anderson
4. Brandon Barnes
5. Thomas Duarte
6. Charles Standberry Jr.
7. Anthony Denham
8. Scott Orndoff
9. Bryce Williams
10. Adrien Robinson
11. Braedon Bowman
12. Austin Traylor
13. Cameron Clear
14. Ben Johnson
15. Garrett Hudson
16. Matt Weiser

K

1. Nick Novak
2. Nick Folk
3. Nick Rose
4. Elliot Fry
5. Yonghoe Koo
6. Josh Jasper
7. Donny Hageman
8. Jimmy Camacho

Defense

1. Memphis Express
2. Orlando Apollos
3. Arizona Hotshots
4. Birmingham Iron
5. San Antonio Commanders
6. Salt Lake Stallions
7. San Diego Fleet
8. Atlanta Legends

Travelers Championship One and Done Pick and Sleeper Bets

After last weekend’s stellar U.S. Open, we now head to Cromwell, Connecticut, for the Travelers Championship. Unlike most weeks after a Major Championship, we will have a very star-studded field competing at TPC River Highlands. Nine of the top 20 players in the world are set to participate this weekend, including Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, Jason Day and last week’s winner Brooks Koepka.

TPC River Highlands is a super short 6,841-yard Par 70 but don’t let the yardage confuse you. The course is a Pete Dye designed-course, and when you see Dye’s name as the course constructor, you know it isn’t going to be easy. The greens are Poa with a mix of Bentgrass and up until last year had been known to be extremely slow before the renovation. All of that changed last season, though. In the second year post-renovation, the greens at TPC River Highlands ran fast and made putting much more critical. No longer were inferior putters able to negate the disadvantage they had on the greens. And that isn’t to say that you have to be a historically great putter to win, but you do need to have a hot putting week to contend now. Eight of the 12 par-fours measure between 400 to 450 yards, which means players can pick their distance off the tee and decide what yardage they want for their second shot. There are only two par-fives on the course, but they are holes that need to be taken advantage of when you get to them.

Key Stats For The Week:

Ball Striking-30%
Birdies Gained-20%
Par 4 400-450 Yards- 20%
Strokes Gained Par 5-15%
Strokes Gained Off the Tee-15%

My Pick to Win

Patrick Reed

Full disclosure on this pick, I don’t think Patrick Reed is bettable at 16/1, and this isn’t some recommendation to bet Reed at his shallow price. What it is, though, is a strong lean that Reed is going to have a good showing and should be around with a chance to capture the title on Sunday. Win equity and outright price don’t always coincide with one another. Reed’s real win equity is probably closer to three percent, which should put him in the vicinity of 33/1. His current outright price of 16/1 puts him more in the territory of having to win this tournament 6.25 percent of the time to be profitable, and that just isn’t correct value. Aside from the mathematical logistics of why Reed isn’t a good outright bet, lets instead look at why he is an excellent play for DraftKings, head to head wagers and One and Done contests. In Reed’s last 24 rounds compared to the field, he ranks fourth in strokes gained on par-fives, fifth in strokes gained tee to green, eighth in birdies or better gained, 14th in par-four scoring between 400 to 450 yards and 17th in ball striking. Familiarity with TPC River Highlands should also suit Reed this week. Reed posted a T5 here last year and a T11 in 2016. Last but not least, I looked at Reed’s statistics on only Pete Dye courses. Once again he is stellar across the board. Looking at his previous 24 rounds on Pete Dye-designed courses and using the same statistics as before, he ranked second in strokes gained on par-fives, second in par-four scoring between 400 to 450 yards, 13th in strokes gained tee to green, 14th in ball striking, and 18th in birdies or better gained. For me, Reed is going to be my One and Done play for the week. He provides the consistency I am hoping for and still presents upside for victory, even if it isn’t at the right odds from an outright perspective.

Sleepers

Si Woo Kim (100/1)

Si Woo Kim is a Pete Dye specialist. In Kim’s career, he has played seven tournaments where all four of the rounds were held on a Pete Dye course. In those seven tournaments, Kim has never missed a cut and has provided six top-25 finishes, including a win at The Players Championship and a second-place at this year’s RBC Heritage. Kim has the sort of game that can win at any venue, and I refuse to miss the boat on him at a place that catches his eye.

Emiliano Grillo (70/1)

Emiliano Grillo, just like Si Woo Kim, is another player who is ideally suited for a Pete Dye course. In Grillo’s 17 rounds played previously on Pete Dye-designed courses, he ranks second in ball striking and third in strokes gained tee to green. If you take away Grillo’s missed cut at last week’s U.S. Open, he has provided 19 consecutive made cuts and nine top-25 finishes. 70/1 is a ridiculous price on the young Argentinian golfer. He has been bet down from that number at most places, but if you shop around at different markets, you can find some better prices still available on him.

Brendan Steele (80/1)

Brendan Steele comes into the week struggling as of late, but this is the perfect venue to get him back on track. Steele has made six of his seven cuts at TPC River Highlands and owns a 68.08 scoring average on Pete Dye-designed layouts. The 35-year-old ranks ninth in his last 24 rounds compared to the field in ball striking and 17th in strokes gained tee to green. His off the tee game is what really separates him from the pack, though. Steele ranks eighth on tour in strokes gained off the tee, and even though this isn’t a distance course, he ranks 14th in driving distance. Steele’s price is completely inflated based on his current spotty form, but theoretically, he should be closer to the 40/1 range in this field.

Chesson Hadley (125/1)

What in the world has happened to Chesson Hadley’s price? Weren’t we seeing him in the 40/1 range a couple of months ago? Maybe even less at some tournaments? The weirdest part is that Hadley’s decrease in odds doesn’t have a particularly good reason behind it. If you exclude his missed cut at the U.S. Open last week, Hadley had provided eight consecutive made cuts and six top-20 finishes. In Hadley’s most recent Pete Dye events, he had a T11 at The Players Championship and a T7 at the RBC Heritage. At his outrageous 125/1 price, count me in.

Ryan Moore (33/1)

It is hard to label a 33/1 bet as a sleeper, but I think that is precisely what Ryan Moore turns into when he is priced as low as he is on his outright number. Don’t get me wrong; I like Ryan Moore. Moore attended the University of Nevada Las Vegas, (UNLV), seven years before I started attending there, and because of that reason, I have always been well aware of him. He was a standout collegiate golfer and even won the NCAA individual title, but when you see Moore as low as 33/1 in a field, you know there must be a particular reason as to why. In Moore’s last three appearances at TPC River Highlands, he has produced a 17th, a fifth, and a seventh. Those are some gaudy finishes, but that alone wouldn’t put Moore at 33/1. I dug deeper and looked at Moore’s past 24 rounds compared to the field in my key stats for the week, and that is where the UNLV grad stuck out. Moore was ranked first in strokes gained tee to green, first in ball striking and second in par-four scoring between 400 to 450 yards. I expect him to be extremely popular on DraftKings and Fanduel, but I don’t think nearly as many people will be betting the 64th-ranked golfer in the world as an outright bet at such a low number. I haven’t locked a wager in on him yet, but I assume he is where I will be starting most of my betting cards.

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Quick Thoughts on the Phil Mickelson U.S. Open Controversy

The U.S. Open has come and gone, but it didn’t leave us without major story-lines, major controversy and a back-to-back Major winner. From a storyline perspective, the U.S. Open gave us a daunting course. A 7,450-yard Par 70 behemoth, which played even more difficult because of the wind. It was probably justly criticized for the lack of equality throughout Saturday, based on the course appearing to get away from the USGA late in the day, but all in all, Shinnecock Hills gave us the demand we would have hoped to see.

Now let’s get into the major controversy. Like, love or hate Phil Mickelson, you have to admit that what happened on Saturday was something we have never seen before. I have talked to a couple of friends about this situation, and I surprisingly have gotten mixed reviews. Some loved what happened. They were happy that Mickelson “stuck it” to the USGA and used poorly written rules to his advantage. And if the USGA was going to make the course unfairly played on Saturday, Mickelson did a service to all golfers. Personally, I don’t see it as anything like that. Golf is a game of etiquette. Actions have consequences, and NOBODY is bigger than the game of golf. Assessing Mickelson with a two-stroke penalty is essentially the equivalent of giving somebody a slap on the wrist for insider trading. He should have been disqualified and made an example of. Instead, golf has now opened up a can of worms here. What do they do if a player tries this exact act again? If you disqualify the player, it looks like you are giving out rulings based on popularity, and if you don’t, well, then you are just letting players rewrite the rules and play the course at their discretion. With all that being said, since the U.S. Open allowed this act of criminality, I think as a writer for the sport of golf I deserve to be able to make up my own rules as I go along also. If you read my U.S. Open Contenders and Sleepers article last week, link here, you will see I picked Dustin Johnson Brooks Koepka to win the U.S. Open, because I knew Dustin Johnson Brooks Koepka would win back-to-back weeks years.

Rules are in place for a reason:

A lack of rules would lead to confusion.
A lack of enforcing the rules leads to chaos. 

 

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2018 U.S. Open Contenders and Sleepers

The U.S. Open has been my favorite Major Championship since I have gotten into the game of golf. It isn’t based on the fact that it is labeled as the United States Open, because in reality, the Masters is probably more renowned and more appreciated in both the United States and the world. What has always drawn me to the U.S. Open though, is the style of courses that get thrown at the players yearly. They are fair venues but require the utmost skill to win. They reward advanced skillsets and are as challenging as can be and not because they are artificially made to be tough.

The last couple of years, specifically last year at Erin Hills, the U.S. Open has left a very sour taste in my mouth. Erin Hills should have been one of the better tests we have seen, but the players were instead protected. Fairways made as wide as could be so that the weather would not cause a potential bloodbath at the course, and because of that fact, Brooks Koepka overpowered and bludgeoned his way to 16-under par without any real fear of potential disaster. Fast forward to 2018 and Shinnecock Hills should finally get us back on track of what a U.S. Open course is meant to be. Some length off the tee will give players an advantage, but an all-around game mixed with precision, focus, and shot making skills will be needed to hoist the trophy. All luck “should” be taken out of this year’s finish, and for me, that is always what is most important.

Top Contenders

#1 Dustin Johnson (9/1)

What would a U.S. Open list be without DJ near or at the top of a contenders list? The 2016 champion at Oakmont and the 2015 runner-up at Chambers Bay is an ideal fit for any authentic U.S. Open setup. And the reason for that is because he has a complete game and no weaknesses. Johnson not only drives the ball longer, straighter and better than anyone else on tour but he also has his irons dialed in and is a better putter than he gets credit for being. If you haven’t already used Johnson in One and Done contests, he should be at the very top of your selection list. I will be using him this week and will be attaching my league’s wild card feature onto him to double his earnings.

#2 Jon Rahm (22/1)

Jon Rahm had a mental breakdown last year at Erin Hills. His fiery temperament got the best of him, and he not only lost his cool but also missed the cut in the process. Rahm, who is now a year older and hopefully a year more mature mentally, will get a chance to bounce back at Shinnecock Hills this year. The 23-year-old Spanish golfer is about as close to Dustin Johnson’s skillset as maybe anyone on tour. Rahm hasn’t had the best Major success early in his career, and he can still be as red-hot at times as ever, but the fourth-ranked golfer in the world is bound to turn his Major woes around. A fourth-place finish at this year’s Masters was his first top-25 finish in a Major ever. Look for Rahm to build off of that result and potentially post another top-five in New York, with the potential of capturing his first Major title.

#3 Justin Rose (14/1)

Justin Rose has been all or nothing throughout his career at U.S. Open venues. 12 career U.S. Open appearances, with six top-30 finishes and six missed cuts, which includes a victory in 2013 and two additional top-10s in 2003 and 2007. However, Rose comes into Shinnecock Hills this year as dialed in as any golfer in the world. In Rose’s last 15 tournaments, he has produced 11 top-10 results, including wins at the Fort Worth Invitational and the WGC-HSBC. Rose’s price of 14/1 makes him the second favorite in some betting markets. Unfortunately, his price makes him un-bettable given the value that can be had around him, but Justin Rose will not be a surprise champion if he is able to capture his second career U.S. Open title this weekend.

#4 Justin Thomas (14/1)

The gambling market and DFS community refuse to give Justin Thomas the credit he deserves. For whatever reason, Thomas cannot get himself to the top of the DFS or gambling betting market regardless of what he does. For the last 10 months, Thomas has been the best player in the game of golf. He captured his first Major Championship at the PGA Championship in August and since then has produced three additional wins and two more runner-up performances. Thomas’ only real concern this weekend is his lack of consistency off the tee. He is as explosive as anyone on tour but has been known to get a bit sloppy at times with his driver. If he can stay steady this weekend, he has as good of a shot as anyone to capture his second career Major title.

Top Sleepers (Players over 50/1)

#1 All the European Tour Type Grinders- Tommy Fleetwood (50/1), Alex Noren (60/1), Branden Grace (35/1), etc.

Branden Grace has been bet down, so he no longer applies to the players at or over 50/1 rule, but I am going to include him because of him opening at 50/1. Each one of these guys may need the tournament to finish at around eight-under par or less to capture the title, but if it does, they should be right near the top of the leaderboard with a chance to seize their first Major Championship. I am not so sure any of them could win in a birdie shootout, but that isn’t what Shinnecock Hills should turn into this year. The closer to even-par the score can get, the better off it will be for them. Other European players fit the same mold, but these three are the three most likely champions at odds of 50/1 or more.

#2 Tony Finau (80/1)

The 6’4″ American golfer, Tony Finau, is still looking for his first breakthrough win on the PGA Tour. Yes, I know that Finau won the 2016 Puerto Rico Open in a playoff over Steve Marino but that victory doesn’t scream,” I have arrived.” Finau is as big and strong as anyone on tour, and if he gets hot with his putter, everyone better watch out. It may be too tall of a task to ask of Finau, given the fact that he hasn’t even been able to close out small PGA events, but Finau is going to win something big eventually, and Shinnecock Hills should suit his game. At 80/1 he is worth a look.

#3 Gary Woodland (175/1)

Big-hitting Gary Woodland is one of my favorite values on the board at this year’s U.S. Open. He comes into the event having missed four of his last five cuts, but he did produce a T23 finish in his previous outing at the Memorial Tournament. Woodland has the type of game that can win at any venue, especially one that requires length. His lack of form coming into Shinnecock Hills is completely baked into that 175/1 price. Three months ago it wouldn’t have been inconceivable that Woodland would have been 50/1 for a venue like this. My favorite way to bet him is at 8/1 to come top-20, but there is definitely upside for even a better showing than that.

#4 Si Woo Kim (150/1)

Si Woo Kim still provides tons of boom but maybe not as much bust as he has in the past. Kim enters this week having made his last seven cuts, including 84 percent of his cuts on the year. The surprise winner of the 2017 Players Championship, Kim has shown he is able to win star-studded events in the past and seems to go for the win when he has a chance to do so. Statistically, Kim doesn’t have any stats that are extremely eye-popping. However, he does rank 21st in his last 24 rounds compared to the field in strokes gained off the tee, which should be a plus at a course that is so long. There is just something about the young 22-year-old South Korean golfer that makes him show up for significant events. At 150/1, he is worth a hard look.

#5 Brendan Steele (200/1)

Brendan Steele is another player who comes into the week overinflated in price. He very well may turn into a better top 20 bet since he has trouble closing out events, but he provides everything you would hope to see from a player at a U.S. Open venue. After back-to-back top-15 showings in 2017 and 2016 at U.S. Open courses, his 200/1 price, quite frankly, is incredibly disrespectful. He ranks eighth in strokes gained off the tee and 11th in driving distance in his last 24 rounds compared to the field. As mentioned above, Steele will be another player I will be targeting in the top 20 market, but at his bloated 200/1 number, I will be taking a shot on his world-class off the tee skillset.

Please feel free to message me for any U.S. Open questions you may have on Instagram and Twitter @teeoffsports

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