Travelers Championship One and Done Pick and Sleeper Bets

After last weekend’s stellar U.S. Open, we now head to Cromwell, Connecticut, for the Travelers Championship. Unlike most weeks after a Major Championship, we will have a very star-studded field competing at TPC River Highlands. Nine of the top 20 players in the world are set to participate this weekend, including Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, Jason Day and last week’s winner Brooks Koepka.

TPC River Highlands is a super short 6,841-yard Par 70 but don’t let the yardage confuse you. The course is a Pete Dye designed-course, and when you see Dye’s name as the course constructor, you know it isn’t going to be easy. The greens are Poa with a mix of Bentgrass and up until last year had been known to be extremely slow before the renovation. All of that changed last season, though. In the second year post-renovation, the greens at TPC River Highlands ran fast and made putting much more critical. No longer were inferior putters able to negate the disadvantage they had on the greens. And that isn’t to say that you have to be a historically great putter to win, but you do need to have a hot putting week to contend now. Eight of the 12 par-fours measure between 400 to 450 yards, which means players can pick their distance off the tee and decide what yardage they want for their second shot. There are only two par-fives on the course, but they are holes that need to be taken advantage of when you get to them.

Key Stats For The Week:

Ball Striking-30%
Birdies Gained-20%
Par 4 400-450 Yards- 20%
Strokes Gained Par 5-15%
Strokes Gained Off the Tee-15%

My Pick to Win

Patrick Reed

Full disclosure on this pick, I don’t think Patrick Reed is bettable at 16/1, and this isn’t some recommendation to bet Reed at his shallow price. What it is, though, is a strong lean that Reed is going to have a good showing and should be around with a chance to capture the title on Sunday. Win equity and outright price don’t always coincide with one another. Reed’s real win equity is probably closer to three percent, which should put him in the vicinity of 33/1. His current outright price of 16/1 puts him more in the territory of having to win this tournament 6.25 percent of the time to be profitable, and that just isn’t correct value. Aside from the mathematical logistics of why Reed isn’t a good outright bet, lets instead look at why he is an excellent play for DraftKings, head to head wagers and One and Done contests. In Reed’s last 24 rounds compared to the field, he ranks fourth in strokes gained on par-fives, fifth in strokes gained tee to green, eighth in birdies or better gained, 14th in par-four scoring between 400 to 450 yards and 17th in ball striking. Familiarity with TPC River Highlands should also suit Reed this week. Reed posted a T5 here last year and a T11 in 2016. Last but not least, I looked at Reed’s statistics on only Pete Dye courses. Once again he is stellar across the board. Looking at his previous 24 rounds on Pete Dye-designed courses and using the same statistics as before, he ranked second in strokes gained on par-fives, second in par-four scoring between 400 to 450 yards, 13th in strokes gained tee to green, 14th in ball striking, and 18th in birdies or better gained. For me, Reed is going to be my One and Done play for the week. He provides the consistency I am hoping for and still presents upside for victory, even if it isn’t at the right odds from an outright perspective.

Sleepers

Si Woo Kim (100/1)

Si Woo Kim is a Pete Dye specialist. In Kim’s career, he has played seven tournaments where all four of the rounds were held on a Pete Dye course. In those seven tournaments, Kim has never missed a cut and has provided six top-25 finishes, including a win at The Players Championship and a second-place at this year’s RBC Heritage. Kim has the sort of game that can win at any venue, and I refuse to miss the boat on him at a place that catches his eye.

Emiliano Grillo (70/1)

Emiliano Grillo, just like Si Woo Kim, is another player who is ideally suited for a Pete Dye course. In Grillo’s 17 rounds played previously on Pete Dye-designed courses, he ranks second in ball striking and third in strokes gained tee to green. If you take away Grillo’s missed cut at last week’s U.S. Open, he has provided 19 consecutive made cuts and nine top-25 finishes. 70/1 is a ridiculous price on the young Argentinian golfer. He has been bet down from that number at most places, but if you shop around at different markets, you can find some better prices still available on him.

Brendan Steele (80/1)

Brendan Steele comes into the week struggling as of late, but this is the perfect venue to get him back on track. Steele has made six of his seven cuts at TPC River Highlands and owns a 68.08 scoring average on Pete Dye-designed layouts. The 35-year-old ranks ninth in his last 24 rounds compared to the field in ball striking and 17th in strokes gained tee to green. His off the tee game is what really separates him from the pack, though. Steele ranks eighth on tour in strokes gained off the tee, and even though this isn’t a distance course, he ranks 14th in driving distance. Steele’s price is completely inflated based on his current spotty form, but theoretically, he should be closer to the 40/1 range in this field.

Chesson Hadley (125/1)

What in the world has happened to Chesson Hadley’s price? Weren’t we seeing him in the 40/1 range a couple of months ago? Maybe even less at some tournaments? The weirdest part is that Hadley’s decrease in odds doesn’t have a particularly good reason behind it. If you exclude his missed cut at the U.S. Open last week, Hadley had provided eight consecutive made cuts and six top-20 finishes. In Hadley’s most recent Pete Dye events, he had a T11 at The Players Championship and a T7 at the RBC Heritage. At his outrageous 125/1 price, count me in.

Ryan Moore (33/1)

It is hard to label a 33/1 bet as a sleeper, but I think that is precisely what Ryan Moore turns into when he is priced as low as he is on his outright number. Don’t get me wrong; I like Ryan Moore. Moore attended the University of Nevada Las Vegas, (UNLV), seven years before I started attending there, and because of that reason, I have always been well aware of him. He was a standout collegiate golfer and even won the NCAA individual title, but when you see Moore as low as 33/1 in a field, you know there must be a particular reason as to why. In Moore’s last three appearances at TPC River Highlands, he has produced a 17th, a fifth, and a seventh. Those are some gaudy finishes, but that alone wouldn’t put Moore at 33/1. I dug deeper and looked at Moore’s past 24 rounds compared to the field in my key stats for the week, and that is where the UNLV grad stuck out. Moore was ranked first in strokes gained tee to green, first in ball striking and second in par-four scoring between 400 to 450 yards. I expect him to be extremely popular on DraftKings and Fanduel, but I don’t think nearly as many people will be betting the 64th-ranked golfer in the world as an outright bet at such a low number. I haven’t locked a wager in on him yet, but I assume he is where I will be starting most of my betting cards.

Follow me on Instagram and Twitter @teeoffsports

And check me out on Rotoballer.com for my golf player news.

 

 

One and Done Selection For the FedEx St. Jude Classic

2018 FedEx St. Jude Classic

TPC Southwind – 7,244 Yards – Par 70
Greens: Bermuda

After last week’s Memorial Tournament provided us a star-studded field, the FedEx St. Jude Classis is going to give us about the opposite end of the spectrum. It is safe to say that FedEx didn’t deliver this weekend. In all fairness, the lack of strength has more to do with the U.S. Open being next week than anything else. Most of the top names are getting ready for Shinnecock Hills, and anyone who wasn’t already qualified for the U.S. Open spent Monday in their Sectional Qualifiers. This has accounted for an even weaker field because most everyone who was lucky enough to get into the U.S. Open from the Sectional Qualifiers pulled out once they did so.

From a course perspective, TPC Southwind has a couple of interesting notes to address. It has 94 bunkers and 10 water hazards. The 10 water hazards may be the most dangerous aspect of this place. Since 2013, TPC Southwind has had more balls land in the water than any course on tour. Almost 1500 more balls have gone swimming than the next closest course, which is TPC Sawgrass. Strokes gained approach seems to be the most critical factor in placing in the top-10 and the vast majority of the approach shots will come between 150 to 200 yards.

Key Stats:

Strokes Gained Approach – 25%
Birdie or Better Gained – 20%
Par 4 Scoring 450-500 Yards – 15%
Strokes Gained Par 5 Scoring – 15%
Proximity 150-175 Yards – 15%
Strokes Gained Off the Tee – 10%

My OAD Selections for the season so far:

Sony Open
Gary Woodland T7- $193,233

Career Builder Challenge
Chesson Hadley T42- $18,983

Farmers Insurance Open
Tony Finau T6- $239,775

Waste Management Phoenix Open
Webb Simpson MC- $0

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Brandt Snedeker T20- $80,167

Genesis Open
Paul Casey T49- $17,964

The Honda Classic
Alex Noren T3- $448,800

WGC-Mexico
Phil Mickelson 1st- $1,700,000

Valspar Championship
Sergio Garcia 4th- $312,000

Arnold Palmer Invitational
Rickie Fowler T14- $137,950

Corales Puntacana Championship
Emiliano Grillo T50- $7,305

WGC Dell Technologies Match Play
Bubba Watson 1st- $1,700,00

Houston Open
Luke List T24- $54,163

Masters
Jordan Spieth 3rd- $748,000

RBC Heritage
Matt Kuchar T23- $53,823

Valero Texas Open
Adam Scott MC- $0

Wells Fargo Championship
Bryson Dechambeau 4th- $369,600

The Players Championship
Justin Thomas T11- $225,500

AT&T Byron Nelson
Hideki Matsuyama T16- $115,500

Fort Worth Invitational
Adam Hadwin T52- $16,472

The Memorial Tournament
Justin Rose T6 – $309,275

Total $ – 6,748,510

Screen Shot 2018-06-05 at 3.43.06 PM

____________________________________________________________________________________________
Last week’s suggestions at The Memorial Tournament
#5 Jason Dufner – MC
#4 Henrik Stenson – T13
#3 Tiger Woods – T23
#2 Dustin Johnson – T8
#1 Justin Rose – T6
____________________________________________________________________________________________

Golfers in the field I have already used: List, Finau, Snedeker, Mickelson,

My top-five OAD picks- (Only four”ish” suggestions this week)
(Any golfer I have used will be eliminated from consideration.)
Guys I would consider if I hadn’t already used them: List, Mickelson, Finau

#4 Kevin Chappell

Kevin Chappell comes into the week with less than ideal form but makes for an interesting One and Done contrarian selection. Hear me out here before you rush to judgment on this call. For starters, Chappell would only be recommended to those who are in need of a swing for the fence type of a pick. Chappell enters the week having missed four of his last five cuts, but I genuinely believe there are reasons to like him this week. Before Chappell’s back injury sent him in the wrong direction for the last two months, the 31-year-old American golfer was closing in on his second career PGA Tour win. Even though Chappell’s results have not adequately shown up yet, his statistical performance is starting to come back to where he was. In his last 24 rounds compared to the field, Chappell ranks third in Par-4 scoring between 450 to 500 yards, 15th in proximity between 150 to 175 yards, and top-25 in birdie or better and strokes gained off the tee. In reality, there aren’t many possible guys who are options this week. Chappell provides top-tier upside without maybe the current form you would hope to see.

#3 Kiradech Aphibarnrat

Kiradech Aphibarnrat is a surprise entrance into the FedEx St. Jude Classic field this week. Aphibarnrat needed a sponsor exemption to get himself into the field. The 28-year-old Thai golfer has graced his presence on the PGA Tour much more than some may have thought he would have this season. Despite this fact, Aphibarnrat is not necessarily the first player you would think of using in a One and Done pool, and for this reason, the 31st-ranked player in the world more often than not is left as a reserve pick than the actual selection. If you think about the nature of most One and Done pools, you would realize that many people use golfers that they shouldn’t throughout the season. Contests don’t play out this straightforward because there are many variables to consider weekly, but in reality, you shouldn’t be playing anyone outside of the top-50 in the world. If you played it this way, you probably wouldn’t be entirely successful, but it goes to show that people go just a bit too far down the rankings. I really can’t think of any other spot this season I would be wanting to play Aphibarnrat, and this may be as good of an opportunity as any. Aphibarnrat provides high upside and low ownership.

#2 Luke List, Phil Mickelson, or Tony Finau

I never advise guys I have already used. There’s a method behind the madness of a One and Done contest. If someone covering and advising on picks could freely do so, they would select Justin Thomas or Dustin Johnson every week. I could claim they were the best picks on the board, and if I hadn’t already used them, I would have done so this week. That is obviously not how these contests work, and we would have no weekly article under those pretenses, at least not one of fair judgment. That is why I always try and add players I have used already and guys I would consider if I hadn’t already done so. However, for this week, I am going to cheat on those rules, and I will explain why. The FedEx St. Jude Classic is a very weak tournament, and there aren’t enough players who I would happily recommend. I genuinely feel that the three guys mentioned above are all worthy of being potential top-five recommendations. I don’t feel comfortable endorsing any of them as my One and Done pick for the week, but if you haven’t used someone from that list, I think this week could be a great time to do so.

#1 Henrik Stenson

Henrik Stenson comes into the week with five straight top-25 finishes, which includes three top-six results. Stenson reminds me of our One and Done pick, Justin Rose, last week. When Stenson is on, he is one of the best players in the world, and I don’t know if you are going to catch the 42-year-old Sweedish golfer in a better situation all season. In his last 12 rounds compared to the field, Stenson ranks first in strokes gained approach. At some point soon, he will be heading over to Europe for a handful of weeks, which limits our number of opportunities to play him. I would rather catch him when he is in-form than wait and potentially miss out on the hot streak.

 

Follow me on Instagram and Twitter @teeoffsports

and check me out on Rotoballer.com for my golf player news.

 

 

One and Done Selection For the Memorial Tournament

2018 Memorial Tournament

Muirfield Village Golf Club – 7,392 Yards – Par 72
Greens: Bentgrass

The Memorial Tournament once again did not disappoint in its strength of the field. Always boasting one of the best compilation of players, Muirfield Village is a perfect setup course for those trying to get prepared for the U.S. Open. It measures just under 7,400 yards and is a relatively long course with THICK rough. Wayward drives are a recipe for disaster at this venue, although the relatively wide fairways make driving accuracy less of a relevant stat. Players will need good sand games to cope for the greenside bunkers all throughout Muirfield Village.

Key Stats:

Strokes Gained Approach – 25%
Par 4 450-500 Yards – 20%
Par 3 175-200 Yards – 15%
Proximity 175-200 Yards – 15%
Sand Saves – 15%
Greens In Regulation Gained – 10%

My OAD Selections for the season so far:

Sony Open
Gary Woodland T7- $193,233

Career Builder Challenge
Chesson Hadley T42- $18,983

Farmers Insurance Open
Tony Finau T6- $239,775

Waste Management Phoenix Open
Webb Simpson MC- $0

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Brandt Snedeker T20- $80,167

Genesis Open
Paul Casey T49- $17,964

The Honda Classic
Alex Noren T3- $448,800

WGC-Mexico
Phil Mickelson 1st- $1,700,000

Valspar Championship
Sergio Garcia 4th- $312,000

Arnold Palmer Invitational
Rickie Fowler T14- $137,950

Corales Puntacana Championship
Emiliano Grillo T50- $7,305

WGC Dell Technologies Match Play
Bubba Watson 1st- $1,700,00

Houston Open
Luke List T24- $54,163

Masters
Jordan Spieth 3rd- $748,000

RBC Heritage
Matt Kuchar T23- $53,823

Valero Texas Open
Adam Scott MC- $0

Wells Fargo Championship
Bryson Dechambeau 4th- $369,600

The Players Championship
Justin Thomas T11- $225,500

AT&T Byron Nelson
Hideki Matsuyama T16- $115,500

Fort Worth Invitational
Adam Hadwin T52- $16,472

Total $- $6,439,235

Screen Shot 2018-05-29 at 4.10.26 PM

Last week was a disaster One and Done selection week for us. Our eventual pick, Adam Hadwin, managed to scrape out a meager T52 showing, giving us a payday of $16,472, but our whole top-five recommendation list was very subpar. We will look for a significant bounce-back effort this week at the Memorial Tournament.

Golfers in the field I have already used: Woodland, Hadley, Finau, Mickelson, Fowler, Grillo, Watson, List, Spieth, Kuchar, Scott, DeChambeau, Thomas, Matsuyama, and Hadwin.

My top-five OAD picks for the Memorial Tournament-
(Any golfer I have used will be eliminated from consideration.)

#5 Jason Dufner

Our defending champion at the Memorial Tournament will start off our top-five list. Jason Dufner put on a ball-striking exhibition last year during his victory at the Memorial Tournament. Dufner opened Thursday and Friday with consecutive seven-under 65 rounds. Going into the weekend, it appeared as if the tournament was all but over, but that is when things got interesting. Dufner shot a five-over 77 on Saturday, letting back in a whole brigade of players, which included Justin Thomas and Rickie Fowler, to name a few. Luckily for Dufner, he found a way to bounce back on Sunday and seal the title. Dufner shot a four-under 68 during his final round, winning by three strokes over Fowler and Anirban Lahiri. Dufner has struggled to find success since his victory last season at Muirfield Village but may be peaking again at the right time. Dufner has produced two top-five finishes in his last four tournaments, which just so happen to be his only top-10 results since his title here last year. In his last 24 rounds compared to the field on Jack Nicklaus-designed courses, Dufner ranks first in greens in regulation and second in strokes gained approach.

#4 Henrik Stenson

Week in and week out, Henrik Stenson has continued to put on a ball-striking demonstration that very few can even come close to matching. After a string of three top-six finishes, the 42-year-old Sweedish golfer relatively disappointed his backers at The Players Championship by providing just a T23 showing. While a share of 23rd-place is nothing to sneeze at, it still was a bit lackluster for the over 40 percent of DraftKings players who played him in GPPs. Stenson should provide a nice rebound for those who are willing to go back to the well, and honestly, I don’t see a reason why he shouldn’t be considered.

#3 Tiger Woods

The five-time champion at the Memorial Tournament will come in at No. 3 this week for me. Woods has had a spectacular return to professional golf. Having made eight of nine cuts, with five top-15 finishes, Woods looks like he is starting to get very close to capturing a title again soon on Tour. The question becomes, “Just how close are we?” I think we are reaching the territory that it very well could happen any week. I refuse to write Woods off at a tournament he has won five times, but I do think his erratic driver and suspect sand game will prevent him from capturing the title this weekend. Still, I expect Woods to produce a top-20 finish here, getting him one step closer to his first title of the season.

#2. Dustin Johnson

Full disclosure on this pick, I will not be using him, but I do think this makes for a unique spot to use Johnson if you are trying to chase down the leaders of your pool. Most people who haven’t used Johnson yet will be waiting to use him at the U.S. Open. I fall right into that same category, but instead of trying to copy the mold and therefore remaining stagnant regardless of how Johnson does, why not set yourself apart and use him a week or two early? The big-hitting American struggled mightily last year at the Memorial Tournament and missed the cut, but in his two prior years, he had a solo third-place finish in 2016 and T13 in 2015. He comes into the week appearing like he is still trying to find his game, but most people fail to realize Johnson has produced 10 straight top-17 finishes.

#1 Justin Rose

I am never a big fan of jumping on a player the week after he has won a tournament. Most of the time you have already missed the boat on his success and are setting yourself up for disappointment. However, I don’t believe this to be the case with Justin Rose. Rose has made eight of 11 career cuts at Muirfield Village, and while a 72 percent cut rate is not overly promising, he also has six top-10 finishes and one victory here. Rose is the kind of player that when he is on, he is almost unbeatable. His current form is spectacular, his course history is as good as anyone’s, and statistically, he grades out in the top-five of my spreadsheet. For all those reasons, I will be using Justin Rose as my OAD pick for the week.

Follow me on Instagram and Twitter @teeoffsports

and check me out on Rotoballer.com for my golf player news.

One And Done Golf Selections

This week’s Tournament:

The Players Championship: Justin Thomas

Overall Total- $6,081,763

My OAD Selections

Sony Open
Gary Woodland T7- $193,233

Career Builder Challenge
Chesson Hadley T42- $18,983

Farmers Insurance Open
Tony Finau T6- $239,775

Waste Management Phoenix Open
Webb Simpson MC- $0

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Brandt Snedeker T20- $80,167

Genesis Open
Paul Casey T49- $17,964

The Honda Classic
Alex Noren T3- $448,800

WGC-Mexico
Phil Mickelson 1st- $1,700,000

Valspar Championship
Sergio Garcia 4th- $312,000

Arnold Palmer Invitational
Rickie Fowler T14- $137,950

Corales Puntacana Championship
Emiliano Grillo T50- $7,305

WGC Dell Technologies Match Play
Bubba Watson 1st- $1,700,00

Houston Open
Luke List T24- $54,163

Masters
Jordan Spieth 3rd- $748,000

RBC Heritage
Matt Kuchar T23- $53,823

Valero Texas Open
Adam Scott MC- $0

Wells Fargo Championship
Bryson Dechambeau 4th- $369,600

The Players Championship
Justin Thomas

 

Stay tuned for my weekly picks and follow me @teeoffsports on Instagram and Twitter