KSI vs. Logan Paul – Who Will Win?

On February 3rd, 2018, Olajide William “JJ” Olatunji (better known as KSI) took on fellow YouTube personality Joe Weller at the Copper Box Arena in Hackney Wick, London. On Youtube, the fight generated 21 million views and proceeded to grow to over 25 million in the next several days, making it the biggest white-collar amateur boxing match in history.

KSi

KSI, who was the bigger man of the two, used his height and reach to keep Weller at a distance throughout the fight and eventually put a stop to the action with 1 minute and 30 seconds left in the third round. It goes without saying that with it being an amateur boxing match between two YouTube celebrities that the fight wasn’t always the most technically sound thing to watch. KSI demonstrated great movement in the two and a half rounds we got to see out of him in live action, but his hands remained too low at times, and he did take some shots from the smaller Weller. All in all, however, the fight was a great success, and KSI was awarded the inaugural YouTube Boxing championship belt.

ksi1

KSI’s victory celebration was short-lived, and it took him little time to call out who he wanted next. He got onto the mic after the fight and called out Jake Paul, Logan Paul or any of the Paul’s to be his next opponent. The challenge that KSI issued spiraled the internet into a whirlwind of drama and it was announced on February 24th, 2018 that Logan Paul would be squaring off against KSI on August 25th, with both of their younger brothers fighting each other on the undercard.

Advantages 

KSI KSI 2.jpg

Experience means something in boxing, and they don’t call it the “sweet science” for nothing. Even if there has only been one fight in KSI’s career, he has spent more time thinking about angles and movement, which is something he had to put into a game plan when he faced Weller. KSI’s greatest strength is his movement, and if he is in shape for a six-round fight, the 25-year-old will hope to run circles around the more stout Paul in the ring.

Logan Paul

PAul.jpg

Logan Paul has a wrestling background, which saw him place fifth at a state-level high school tournament. KSI’s advantage of performing in front of a crowd could be somewhat mitigated because of Paul’s experience competing in one-on-one situations. However, the 23-year-old isn’t going to carry the size advantage that was once thought. Paul comes in at two inches taller than KSI, but his weight advantage has been moderated. Paul weighed in at slightly under 190 pounds, and KSI weighed in at 187.

Who Will Win?

ksi vs logan.png

Let’s be honest; this is amateur boxing, and neither guy has had enough training in their lives to become technically sound enough to overcome their weaknesses. Weight isn’t going to be an excuse for why either guy wins or loses, and I think it ultimately comes down to two main things. It remains to be seen how Paul is able to defend himself , but from the KSI vs. Weller fight, I can safely say that unless KSI has improved dramatically in the last six months, he is going to have issues with Paul’s aggressive come-forward approach. If Paul can walk KSI down and make this a phone booth fight, he will ultimately wear down the Englishman and possibly be able to pull off a stoppage.

Assuming this fight will be fairly judged in KSI’s country, which isn’t a given, KSI’s only foreseeable path to victory is to keep this fight at a distance. He needs to jab and move and physically exhaust Paul. Kind of like how he did against Weller. The problem is Paul is a different animal, and it hard to imagine that KSI will be able to keep him away for six rounds.

Prediction

Logan Paul fourth-round TKO

 

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Travelers Championship One and Done Pick and Sleeper Bets

After last weekend’s stellar U.S. Open, we now head to Cromwell, Connecticut, for the Travelers Championship. Unlike most weeks after a Major Championship, we will have a very star-studded field competing at TPC River Highlands. Nine of the top 20 players in the world are set to participate this weekend, including Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, Jason Day and last week’s winner Brooks Koepka.

TPC River Highlands is a super short 6,841-yard Par 70 but don’t let the yardage confuse you. The course is a Pete Dye designed-course, and when you see Dye’s name as the course constructor, you know it isn’t going to be easy. The greens are Poa with a mix of Bentgrass and up until last year had been known to be extremely slow before the renovation. All of that changed last season, though. In the second year post-renovation, the greens at TPC River Highlands ran fast and made putting much more critical. No longer were inferior putters able to negate the disadvantage they had on the greens. And that isn’t to say that you have to be a historically great putter to win, but you do need to have a hot putting week to contend now. Eight of the 12 par-fours measure between 400 to 450 yards, which means players can pick their distance off the tee and decide what yardage they want for their second shot. There are only two par-fives on the course, but they are holes that need to be taken advantage of when you get to them.

Key Stats For The Week:

Ball Striking-30%
Birdies Gained-20%
Par 4 400-450 Yards- 20%
Strokes Gained Par 5-15%
Strokes Gained Off the Tee-15%

My Pick to Win

Patrick Reed

Full disclosure on this pick, I don’t think Patrick Reed is bettable at 16/1, and this isn’t some recommendation to bet Reed at his shallow price. What it is, though, is a strong lean that Reed is going to have a good showing and should be around with a chance to capture the title on Sunday. Win equity and outright price don’t always coincide with one another. Reed’s real win equity is probably closer to three percent, which should put him in the vicinity of 33/1. His current outright price of 16/1 puts him more in the territory of having to win this tournament 6.25 percent of the time to be profitable, and that just isn’t correct value. Aside from the mathematical logistics of why Reed isn’t a good outright bet, lets instead look at why he is an excellent play for DraftKings, head to head wagers and One and Done contests. In Reed’s last 24 rounds compared to the field, he ranks fourth in strokes gained on par-fives, fifth in strokes gained tee to green, eighth in birdies or better gained, 14th in par-four scoring between 400 to 450 yards and 17th in ball striking. Familiarity with TPC River Highlands should also suit Reed this week. Reed posted a T5 here last year and a T11 in 2016. Last but not least, I looked at Reed’s statistics on only Pete Dye courses. Once again he is stellar across the board. Looking at his previous 24 rounds on Pete Dye-designed courses and using the same statistics as before, he ranked second in strokes gained on par-fives, second in par-four scoring between 400 to 450 yards, 13th in strokes gained tee to green, 14th in ball striking, and 18th in birdies or better gained. For me, Reed is going to be my One and Done play for the week. He provides the consistency I am hoping for and still presents upside for victory, even if it isn’t at the right odds from an outright perspective.

Sleepers

Si Woo Kim (100/1)

Si Woo Kim is a Pete Dye specialist. In Kim’s career, he has played seven tournaments where all four of the rounds were held on a Pete Dye course. In those seven tournaments, Kim has never missed a cut and has provided six top-25 finishes, including a win at The Players Championship and a second-place at this year’s RBC Heritage. Kim has the sort of game that can win at any venue, and I refuse to miss the boat on him at a place that catches his eye.

Emiliano Grillo (70/1)

Emiliano Grillo, just like Si Woo Kim, is another player who is ideally suited for a Pete Dye course. In Grillo’s 17 rounds played previously on Pete Dye-designed courses, he ranks second in ball striking and third in strokes gained tee to green. If you take away Grillo’s missed cut at last week’s U.S. Open, he has provided 19 consecutive made cuts and nine top-25 finishes. 70/1 is a ridiculous price on the young Argentinian golfer. He has been bet down from that number at most places, but if you shop around at different markets, you can find some better prices still available on him.

Brendan Steele (80/1)

Brendan Steele comes into the week struggling as of late, but this is the perfect venue to get him back on track. Steele has made six of his seven cuts at TPC River Highlands and owns a 68.08 scoring average on Pete Dye-designed layouts. The 35-year-old ranks ninth in his last 24 rounds compared to the field in ball striking and 17th in strokes gained tee to green. His off the tee game is what really separates him from the pack, though. Steele ranks eighth on tour in strokes gained off the tee, and even though this isn’t a distance course, he ranks 14th in driving distance. Steele’s price is completely inflated based on his current spotty form, but theoretically, he should be closer to the 40/1 range in this field.

Chesson Hadley (125/1)

What in the world has happened to Chesson Hadley’s price? Weren’t we seeing him in the 40/1 range a couple of months ago? Maybe even less at some tournaments? The weirdest part is that Hadley’s decrease in odds doesn’t have a particularly good reason behind it. If you exclude his missed cut at the U.S. Open last week, Hadley had provided eight consecutive made cuts and six top-20 finishes. In Hadley’s most recent Pete Dye events, he had a T11 at The Players Championship and a T7 at the RBC Heritage. At his outrageous 125/1 price, count me in.

Ryan Moore (33/1)

It is hard to label a 33/1 bet as a sleeper, but I think that is precisely what Ryan Moore turns into when he is priced as low as he is on his outright number. Don’t get me wrong; I like Ryan Moore. Moore attended the University of Nevada Las Vegas, (UNLV), seven years before I started attending there, and because of that reason, I have always been well aware of him. He was a standout collegiate golfer and even won the NCAA individual title, but when you see Moore as low as 33/1 in a field, you know there must be a particular reason as to why. In Moore’s last three appearances at TPC River Highlands, he has produced a 17th, a fifth, and a seventh. Those are some gaudy finishes, but that alone wouldn’t put Moore at 33/1. I dug deeper and looked at Moore’s past 24 rounds compared to the field in my key stats for the week, and that is where the UNLV grad stuck out. Moore was ranked first in strokes gained tee to green, first in ball striking and second in par-four scoring between 400 to 450 yards. I expect him to be extremely popular on DraftKings and Fanduel, but I don’t think nearly as many people will be betting the 64th-ranked golfer in the world as an outright bet at such a low number. I haven’t locked a wager in on him yet, but I assume he is where I will be starting most of my betting cards.

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Quick Thoughts on the Phil Mickelson U.S. Open Controversy

The U.S. Open has come and gone, but it didn’t leave us without major story-lines, major controversy and a back-to-back Major winner. From a storyline perspective, the U.S. Open gave us a daunting course. A 7,450-yard Par 70 behemoth, which played even more difficult because of the wind. It was probably justly criticized for the lack of equality throughout Saturday, based on the course appearing to get away from the USGA late in the day, but all in all, Shinnecock Hills gave us the demand we would have hoped to see.

Now let’s get into the major controversy. Like, love or hate Phil Mickelson, you have to admit that what happened on Saturday was something we have never seen before. I have talked to a couple of friends about this situation, and I surprisingly have gotten mixed reviews. Some loved what happened. They were happy that Mickelson “stuck it” to the USGA and used poorly written rules to his advantage. And if the USGA was going to make the course unfairly played on Saturday, Mickelson did a service to all golfers. Personally, I don’t see it as anything like that. Golf is a game of etiquette. Actions have consequences, and NOBODY is bigger than the game of golf. Assessing Mickelson with a two-stroke penalty is essentially the equivalent of giving somebody a slap on the wrist for insider trading. He should have been disqualified and made an example of. Instead, golf has now opened up a can of worms here. What do they do if a player tries this exact act again? If you disqualify the player, it looks like you are giving out rulings based on popularity, and if you don’t, well, then you are just letting players rewrite the rules and play the course at their discretion. With all that being said, since the U.S. Open allowed this act of criminality, I think as a writer for the sport of golf I deserve to be able to make up my own rules as I go along also. If you read my U.S. Open Contenders and Sleepers article last week, link here, you will see I picked Dustin Johnson Brooks Koepka to win the U.S. Open, because I knew Dustin Johnson Brooks Koepka would win back-to-back weeks years.

Rules are in place for a reason:

A lack of rules would lead to confusion.
A lack of enforcing the rules leads to chaos. 

 

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One and Done Selection For the FedEx St. Jude Classic

2018 FedEx St. Jude Classic

TPC Southwind – 7,244 Yards – Par 70
Greens: Bermuda

After last week’s Memorial Tournament provided us a star-studded field, the FedEx St. Jude Classis is going to give us about the opposite end of the spectrum. It is safe to say that FedEx didn’t deliver this weekend. In all fairness, the lack of strength has more to do with the U.S. Open being next week than anything else. Most of the top names are getting ready for Shinnecock Hills, and anyone who wasn’t already qualified for the U.S. Open spent Monday in their Sectional Qualifiers. This has accounted for an even weaker field because most everyone who was lucky enough to get into the U.S. Open from the Sectional Qualifiers pulled out once they did so.

From a course perspective, TPC Southwind has a couple of interesting notes to address. It has 94 bunkers and 10 water hazards. The 10 water hazards may be the most dangerous aspect of this place. Since 2013, TPC Southwind has had more balls land in the water than any course on tour. Almost 1500 more balls have gone swimming than the next closest course, which is TPC Sawgrass. Strokes gained approach seems to be the most critical factor in placing in the top-10 and the vast majority of the approach shots will come between 150 to 200 yards.

Key Stats:

Strokes Gained Approach – 25%
Birdie or Better Gained – 20%
Par 4 Scoring 450-500 Yards – 15%
Strokes Gained Par 5 Scoring – 15%
Proximity 150-175 Yards – 15%
Strokes Gained Off the Tee – 10%

My OAD Selections for the season so far:

Sony Open
Gary Woodland T7- $193,233

Career Builder Challenge
Chesson Hadley T42- $18,983

Farmers Insurance Open
Tony Finau T6- $239,775

Waste Management Phoenix Open
Webb Simpson MC- $0

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Brandt Snedeker T20- $80,167

Genesis Open
Paul Casey T49- $17,964

The Honda Classic
Alex Noren T3- $448,800

WGC-Mexico
Phil Mickelson 1st- $1,700,000

Valspar Championship
Sergio Garcia 4th- $312,000

Arnold Palmer Invitational
Rickie Fowler T14- $137,950

Corales Puntacana Championship
Emiliano Grillo T50- $7,305

WGC Dell Technologies Match Play
Bubba Watson 1st- $1,700,00

Houston Open
Luke List T24- $54,163

Masters
Jordan Spieth 3rd- $748,000

RBC Heritage
Matt Kuchar T23- $53,823

Valero Texas Open
Adam Scott MC- $0

Wells Fargo Championship
Bryson Dechambeau 4th- $369,600

The Players Championship
Justin Thomas T11- $225,500

AT&T Byron Nelson
Hideki Matsuyama T16- $115,500

Fort Worth Invitational
Adam Hadwin T52- $16,472

The Memorial Tournament
Justin Rose T6 – $309,275

Total $ – 6,748,510

Screen Shot 2018-06-05 at 3.43.06 PM

____________________________________________________________________________________________
Last week’s suggestions at The Memorial Tournament
#5 Jason Dufner – MC
#4 Henrik Stenson – T13
#3 Tiger Woods – T23
#2 Dustin Johnson – T8
#1 Justin Rose – T6
____________________________________________________________________________________________

Golfers in the field I have already used: List, Finau, Snedeker, Mickelson,

My top-five OAD picks- (Only four”ish” suggestions this week)
(Any golfer I have used will be eliminated from consideration.)
Guys I would consider if I hadn’t already used them: List, Mickelson, Finau

#4 Kevin Chappell

Kevin Chappell comes into the week with less than ideal form but makes for an interesting One and Done contrarian selection. Hear me out here before you rush to judgment on this call. For starters, Chappell would only be recommended to those who are in need of a swing for the fence type of a pick. Chappell enters the week having missed four of his last five cuts, but I genuinely believe there are reasons to like him this week. Before Chappell’s back injury sent him in the wrong direction for the last two months, the 31-year-old American golfer was closing in on his second career PGA Tour win. Even though Chappell’s results have not adequately shown up yet, his statistical performance is starting to come back to where he was. In his last 24 rounds compared to the field, Chappell ranks third in Par-4 scoring between 450 to 500 yards, 15th in proximity between 150 to 175 yards, and top-25 in birdie or better and strokes gained off the tee. In reality, there aren’t many possible guys who are options this week. Chappell provides top-tier upside without maybe the current form you would hope to see.

#3 Kiradech Aphibarnrat

Kiradech Aphibarnrat is a surprise entrance into the FedEx St. Jude Classic field this week. Aphibarnrat needed a sponsor exemption to get himself into the field. The 28-year-old Thai golfer has graced his presence on the PGA Tour much more than some may have thought he would have this season. Despite this fact, Aphibarnrat is not necessarily the first player you would think of using in a One and Done pool, and for this reason, the 31st-ranked player in the world more often than not is left as a reserve pick than the actual selection. If you think about the nature of most One and Done pools, you would realize that many people use golfers that they shouldn’t throughout the season. Contests don’t play out this straightforward because there are many variables to consider weekly, but in reality, you shouldn’t be playing anyone outside of the top-50 in the world. If you played it this way, you probably wouldn’t be entirely successful, but it goes to show that people go just a bit too far down the rankings. I really can’t think of any other spot this season I would be wanting to play Aphibarnrat, and this may be as good of an opportunity as any. Aphibarnrat provides high upside and low ownership.

#2 Luke List, Phil Mickelson, or Tony Finau

I never advise guys I have already used. There’s a method behind the madness of a One and Done contest. If someone covering and advising on picks could freely do so, they would select Justin Thomas or Dustin Johnson every week. I could claim they were the best picks on the board, and if I hadn’t already used them, I would have done so this week. That is obviously not how these contests work, and we would have no weekly article under those pretenses, at least not one of fair judgment. That is why I always try and add players I have used already and guys I would consider if I hadn’t already done so. However, for this week, I am going to cheat on those rules, and I will explain why. The FedEx St. Jude Classic is a very weak tournament, and there aren’t enough players who I would happily recommend. I genuinely feel that the three guys mentioned above are all worthy of being potential top-five recommendations. I don’t feel comfortable endorsing any of them as my One and Done pick for the week, but if you haven’t used someone from that list, I think this week could be a great time to do so.

#1 Henrik Stenson

Henrik Stenson comes into the week with five straight top-25 finishes, which includes three top-six results. Stenson reminds me of our One and Done pick, Justin Rose, last week. When Stenson is on, he is one of the best players in the world, and I don’t know if you are going to catch the 42-year-old Sweedish golfer in a better situation all season. In his last 12 rounds compared to the field, Stenson ranks first in strokes gained approach. At some point soon, he will be heading over to Europe for a handful of weeks, which limits our number of opportunities to play him. I would rather catch him when he is in-form than wait and potentially miss out on the hot streak.

 

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