Travelers Championship One and Done Pick and Sleeper Bets

After last weekend’s stellar U.S. Open, we now head to Cromwell, Connecticut, for the Travelers Championship. Unlike most weeks after a Major Championship, we will have a very star-studded field competing at TPC River Highlands. Nine of the top 20 players in the world are set to participate this weekend, including Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, Jason Day and last week’s winner Brooks Koepka.

TPC River Highlands is a super short 6,841-yard Par 70 but don’t let the yardage confuse you. The course is a Pete Dye designed-course, and when you see Dye’s name as the course constructor, you know it isn’t going to be easy. The greens are Poa with a mix of Bentgrass and up until last year had been known to be extremely slow before the renovation. All of that changed last season, though. In the second year post-renovation, the greens at TPC River Highlands ran fast and made putting much more critical. No longer were inferior putters able to negate the disadvantage they had on the greens. And that isn’t to say that you have to be a historically great putter to win, but you do need to have a hot putting week to contend now. Eight of the 12 par-fours measure between 400 to 450 yards, which means players can pick their distance off the tee and decide what yardage they want for their second shot. There are only two par-fives on the course, but they are holes that need to be taken advantage of when you get to them.

Key Stats For The Week:

Ball Striking-30%
Birdies Gained-20%
Par 4 400-450 Yards- 20%
Strokes Gained Par 5-15%
Strokes Gained Off the Tee-15%

My Pick to Win

Patrick Reed

Full disclosure on this pick, I don’t think Patrick Reed is bettable at 16/1, and this isn’t some recommendation to bet Reed at his shallow price. What it is, though, is a strong lean that Reed is going to have a good showing and should be around with a chance to capture the title on Sunday. Win equity and outright price don’t always coincide with one another. Reed’s real win equity is probably closer to three percent, which should put him in the vicinity of 33/1. His current outright price of 16/1 puts him more in the territory of having to win this tournament 6.25 percent of the time to be profitable, and that just isn’t correct value. Aside from the mathematical logistics of why Reed isn’t a good outright bet, lets instead look at why he is an excellent play for DraftKings, head to head wagers and One and Done contests. In Reed’s last 24 rounds compared to the field, he ranks fourth in strokes gained on par-fives, fifth in strokes gained tee to green, eighth in birdies or better gained, 14th in par-four scoring between 400 to 450 yards and 17th in ball striking. Familiarity with TPC River Highlands should also suit Reed this week. Reed posted a T5 here last year and a T11 in 2016. Last but not least, I looked at Reed’s statistics on only Pete Dye courses. Once again he is stellar across the board. Looking at his previous 24 rounds on Pete Dye-designed courses and using the same statistics as before, he ranked second in strokes gained on par-fives, second in par-four scoring between 400 to 450 yards, 13th in strokes gained tee to green, 14th in ball striking, and 18th in birdies or better gained. For me, Reed is going to be my One and Done play for the week. He provides the consistency I am hoping for and still presents upside for victory, even if it isn’t at the right odds from an outright perspective.

Sleepers

Si Woo Kim (100/1)

Si Woo Kim is a Pete Dye specialist. In Kim’s career, he has played seven tournaments where all four of the rounds were held on a Pete Dye course. In those seven tournaments, Kim has never missed a cut and has provided six top-25 finishes, including a win at The Players Championship and a second-place at this year’s RBC Heritage. Kim has the sort of game that can win at any venue, and I refuse to miss the boat on him at a place that catches his eye.

Emiliano Grillo (70/1)

Emiliano Grillo, just like Si Woo Kim, is another player who is ideally suited for a Pete Dye course. In Grillo’s 17 rounds played previously on Pete Dye-designed courses, he ranks second in ball striking and third in strokes gained tee to green. If you take away Grillo’s missed cut at last week’s U.S. Open, he has provided 19 consecutive made cuts and nine top-25 finishes. 70/1 is a ridiculous price on the young Argentinian golfer. He has been bet down from that number at most places, but if you shop around at different markets, you can find some better prices still available on him.

Brendan Steele (80/1)

Brendan Steele comes into the week struggling as of late, but this is the perfect venue to get him back on track. Steele has made six of his seven cuts at TPC River Highlands and owns a 68.08 scoring average on Pete Dye-designed layouts. The 35-year-old ranks ninth in his last 24 rounds compared to the field in ball striking and 17th in strokes gained tee to green. His off the tee game is what really separates him from the pack, though. Steele ranks eighth on tour in strokes gained off the tee, and even though this isn’t a distance course, he ranks 14th in driving distance. Steele’s price is completely inflated based on his current spotty form, but theoretically, he should be closer to the 40/1 range in this field.

Chesson Hadley (125/1)

What in the world has happened to Chesson Hadley’s price? Weren’t we seeing him in the 40/1 range a couple of months ago? Maybe even less at some tournaments? The weirdest part is that Hadley’s decrease in odds doesn’t have a particularly good reason behind it. If you exclude his missed cut at the U.S. Open last week, Hadley had provided eight consecutive made cuts and six top-20 finishes. In Hadley’s most recent Pete Dye events, he had a T11 at The Players Championship and a T7 at the RBC Heritage. At his outrageous 125/1 price, count me in.

Ryan Moore (33/1)

It is hard to label a 33/1 bet as a sleeper, but I think that is precisely what Ryan Moore turns into when he is priced as low as he is on his outright number. Don’t get me wrong; I like Ryan Moore. Moore attended the University of Nevada Las Vegas, (UNLV), seven years before I started attending there, and because of that reason, I have always been well aware of him. He was a standout collegiate golfer and even won the NCAA individual title, but when you see Moore as low as 33/1 in a field, you know there must be a particular reason as to why. In Moore’s last three appearances at TPC River Highlands, he has produced a 17th, a fifth, and a seventh. Those are some gaudy finishes, but that alone wouldn’t put Moore at 33/1. I dug deeper and looked at Moore’s past 24 rounds compared to the field in my key stats for the week, and that is where the UNLV grad stuck out. Moore was ranked first in strokes gained tee to green, first in ball striking and second in par-four scoring between 400 to 450 yards. I expect him to be extremely popular on DraftKings and Fanduel, but I don’t think nearly as many people will be betting the 64th-ranked golfer in the world as an outright bet at such a low number. I haven’t locked a wager in on him yet, but I assume he is where I will be starting most of my betting cards.

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2018 U.S. Open Contenders and Sleepers

The U.S. Open has been my favorite Major Championship since I have gotten into the game of golf. It isn’t based on the fact that it is labeled as the United States Open, because in reality, the Masters is probably more renowned and more appreciated in both the United States and the world. What has always drawn me to the U.S. Open though, is the style of courses that get thrown at the players yearly. They are fair venues but require the utmost skill to win. They reward advanced skillsets and are as challenging as can be and not because they are artificially made to be tough.

The last couple of years, specifically last year at Erin Hills, the U.S. Open has left a very sour taste in my mouth. Erin Hills should have been one of the better tests we have seen, but the players were instead protected. Fairways made as wide as could be so that the weather would not cause a potential bloodbath at the course, and because of that fact, Brooks Koepka overpowered and bludgeoned his way to 16-under par without any real fear of potential disaster. Fast forward to 2018 and Shinnecock Hills should finally get us back on track of what a U.S. Open course is meant to be. Some length off the tee will give players an advantage, but an all-around game mixed with precision, focus, and shot making skills will be needed to hoist the trophy. All luck “should” be taken out of this year’s finish, and for me, that is always what is most important.

Top Contenders

#1 Dustin Johnson (9/1)

What would a U.S. Open list be without DJ near or at the top of a contenders list? The 2016 champion at Oakmont and the 2015 runner-up at Chambers Bay is an ideal fit for any authentic U.S. Open setup. And the reason for that is because he has a complete game and no weaknesses. Johnson not only drives the ball longer, straighter and better than anyone else on tour but he also has his irons dialed in and is a better putter than he gets credit for being. If you haven’t already used Johnson in One and Done contests, he should be at the very top of your selection list. I will be using him this week and will be attaching my league’s wild card feature onto him to double his earnings.

#2 Jon Rahm (22/1)

Jon Rahm had a mental breakdown last year at Erin Hills. His fiery temperament got the best of him, and he not only lost his cool but also missed the cut in the process. Rahm, who is now a year older and hopefully a year more mature mentally, will get a chance to bounce back at Shinnecock Hills this year. The 23-year-old Spanish golfer is about as close to Dustin Johnson’s skillset as maybe anyone on tour. Rahm hasn’t had the best Major success early in his career, and he can still be as red-hot at times as ever, but the fourth-ranked golfer in the world is bound to turn his Major woes around. A fourth-place finish at this year’s Masters was his first top-25 finish in a Major ever. Look for Rahm to build off of that result and potentially post another top-five in New York, with the potential of capturing his first Major title.

#3 Justin Rose (14/1)

Justin Rose has been all or nothing throughout his career at U.S. Open venues. 12 career U.S. Open appearances, with six top-30 finishes and six missed cuts, which includes a victory in 2013 and two additional top-10s in 2003 and 2007. However, Rose comes into Shinnecock Hills this year as dialed in as any golfer in the world. In Rose’s last 15 tournaments, he has produced 11 top-10 results, including wins at the Fort Worth Invitational and the WGC-HSBC. Rose’s price of 14/1 makes him the second favorite in some betting markets. Unfortunately, his price makes him un-bettable given the value that can be had around him, but Justin Rose will not be a surprise champion if he is able to capture his second career U.S. Open title this weekend.

#4 Justin Thomas (14/1)

The gambling market and DFS community refuse to give Justin Thomas the credit he deserves. For whatever reason, Thomas cannot get himself to the top of the DFS or gambling betting market regardless of what he does. For the last 10 months, Thomas has been the best player in the game of golf. He captured his first Major Championship at the PGA Championship in August and since then has produced three additional wins and two more runner-up performances. Thomas’ only real concern this weekend is his lack of consistency off the tee. He is as explosive as anyone on tour but has been known to get a bit sloppy at times with his driver. If he can stay steady this weekend, he has as good of a shot as anyone to capture his second career Major title.

Top Sleepers (Players over 50/1)

#1 All the European Tour Type Grinders- Tommy Fleetwood (50/1), Alex Noren (60/1), Branden Grace (35/1), etc.

Branden Grace has been bet down, so he no longer applies to the players at or over 50/1 rule, but I am going to include him because of him opening at 50/1. Each one of these guys may need the tournament to finish at around eight-under par or less to capture the title, but if it does, they should be right near the top of the leaderboard with a chance to seize their first Major Championship. I am not so sure any of them could win in a birdie shootout, but that isn’t what Shinnecock Hills should turn into this year. The closer to even-par the score can get, the better off it will be for them. Other European players fit the same mold, but these three are the three most likely champions at odds of 50/1 or more.

#2 Tony Finau (80/1)

The 6’4″ American golfer, Tony Finau, is still looking for his first breakthrough win on the PGA Tour. Yes, I know that Finau won the 2016 Puerto Rico Open in a playoff over Steve Marino but that victory doesn’t scream,” I have arrived.” Finau is as big and strong as anyone on tour, and if he gets hot with his putter, everyone better watch out. It may be too tall of a task to ask of Finau, given the fact that he hasn’t even been able to close out small PGA events, but Finau is going to win something big eventually, and Shinnecock Hills should suit his game. At 80/1 he is worth a look.

#3 Gary Woodland (175/1)

Big-hitting Gary Woodland is one of my favorite values on the board at this year’s U.S. Open. He comes into the event having missed four of his last five cuts, but he did produce a T23 finish in his previous outing at the Memorial Tournament. Woodland has the type of game that can win at any venue, especially one that requires length. His lack of form coming into Shinnecock Hills is completely baked into that 175/1 price. Three months ago it wouldn’t have been inconceivable that Woodland would have been 50/1 for a venue like this. My favorite way to bet him is at 8/1 to come top-20, but there is definitely upside for even a better showing than that.

#4 Si Woo Kim (150/1)

Si Woo Kim still provides tons of boom but maybe not as much bust as he has in the past. Kim enters this week having made his last seven cuts, including 84 percent of his cuts on the year. The surprise winner of the 2017 Players Championship, Kim has shown he is able to win star-studded events in the past and seems to go for the win when he has a chance to do so. Statistically, Kim doesn’t have any stats that are extremely eye-popping. However, he does rank 21st in his last 24 rounds compared to the field in strokes gained off the tee, which should be a plus at a course that is so long. There is just something about the young 22-year-old South Korean golfer that makes him show up for significant events. At 150/1, he is worth a hard look.

#5 Brendan Steele (200/1)

Brendan Steele is another player who comes into the week overinflated in price. He very well may turn into a better top 20 bet since he has trouble closing out events, but he provides everything you would hope to see from a player at a U.S. Open venue. After back-to-back top-15 showings in 2017 and 2016 at U.S. Open courses, his 200/1 price, quite frankly, is incredibly disrespectful. He ranks eighth in strokes gained off the tee and 11th in driving distance in his last 24 rounds compared to the field. As mentioned above, Steele will be another player I will be targeting in the top 20 market, but at his bloated 200/1 number, I will be taking a shot on his world-class off the tee skillset.

Please feel free to message me for any U.S. Open questions you may have on Instagram and Twitter @teeoffsports

And check me out on Rotoballer.com for my golf player news.

One and Done Selection For the FedEx St. Jude Classic

2018 FedEx St. Jude Classic

TPC Southwind – 7,244 Yards – Par 70
Greens: Bermuda

After last week’s Memorial Tournament provided us a star-studded field, the FedEx St. Jude Classis is going to give us about the opposite end of the spectrum. It is safe to say that FedEx didn’t deliver this weekend. In all fairness, the lack of strength has more to do with the U.S. Open being next week than anything else. Most of the top names are getting ready for Shinnecock Hills, and anyone who wasn’t already qualified for the U.S. Open spent Monday in their Sectional Qualifiers. This has accounted for an even weaker field because most everyone who was lucky enough to get into the U.S. Open from the Sectional Qualifiers pulled out once they did so.

From a course perspective, TPC Southwind has a couple of interesting notes to address. It has 94 bunkers and 10 water hazards. The 10 water hazards may be the most dangerous aspect of this place. Since 2013, TPC Southwind has had more balls land in the water than any course on tour. Almost 1500 more balls have gone swimming than the next closest course, which is TPC Sawgrass. Strokes gained approach seems to be the most critical factor in placing in the top-10 and the vast majority of the approach shots will come between 150 to 200 yards.

Key Stats:

Strokes Gained Approach – 25%
Birdie or Better Gained – 20%
Par 4 Scoring 450-500 Yards – 15%
Strokes Gained Par 5 Scoring – 15%
Proximity 150-175 Yards – 15%
Strokes Gained Off the Tee – 10%

My OAD Selections for the season so far:

Sony Open
Gary Woodland T7- $193,233

Career Builder Challenge
Chesson Hadley T42- $18,983

Farmers Insurance Open
Tony Finau T6- $239,775

Waste Management Phoenix Open
Webb Simpson MC- $0

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Brandt Snedeker T20- $80,167

Genesis Open
Paul Casey T49- $17,964

The Honda Classic
Alex Noren T3- $448,800

WGC-Mexico
Phil Mickelson 1st- $1,700,000

Valspar Championship
Sergio Garcia 4th- $312,000

Arnold Palmer Invitational
Rickie Fowler T14- $137,950

Corales Puntacana Championship
Emiliano Grillo T50- $7,305

WGC Dell Technologies Match Play
Bubba Watson 1st- $1,700,00

Houston Open
Luke List T24- $54,163

Masters
Jordan Spieth 3rd- $748,000

RBC Heritage
Matt Kuchar T23- $53,823

Valero Texas Open
Adam Scott MC- $0

Wells Fargo Championship
Bryson Dechambeau 4th- $369,600

The Players Championship
Justin Thomas T11- $225,500

AT&T Byron Nelson
Hideki Matsuyama T16- $115,500

Fort Worth Invitational
Adam Hadwin T52- $16,472

The Memorial Tournament
Justin Rose T6 – $309,275

Total $ – 6,748,510

Screen Shot 2018-06-05 at 3.43.06 PM

____________________________________________________________________________________________
Last week’s suggestions at The Memorial Tournament
#5 Jason Dufner – MC
#4 Henrik Stenson – T13
#3 Tiger Woods – T23
#2 Dustin Johnson – T8
#1 Justin Rose – T6
____________________________________________________________________________________________

Golfers in the field I have already used: List, Finau, Snedeker, Mickelson,

My top-five OAD picks- (Only four”ish” suggestions this week)
(Any golfer I have used will be eliminated from consideration.)
Guys I would consider if I hadn’t already used them: List, Mickelson, Finau

#4 Kevin Chappell

Kevin Chappell comes into the week with less than ideal form but makes for an interesting One and Done contrarian selection. Hear me out here before you rush to judgment on this call. For starters, Chappell would only be recommended to those who are in need of a swing for the fence type of a pick. Chappell enters the week having missed four of his last five cuts, but I genuinely believe there are reasons to like him this week. Before Chappell’s back injury sent him in the wrong direction for the last two months, the 31-year-old American golfer was closing in on his second career PGA Tour win. Even though Chappell’s results have not adequately shown up yet, his statistical performance is starting to come back to where he was. In his last 24 rounds compared to the field, Chappell ranks third in Par-4 scoring between 450 to 500 yards, 15th in proximity between 150 to 175 yards, and top-25 in birdie or better and strokes gained off the tee. In reality, there aren’t many possible guys who are options this week. Chappell provides top-tier upside without maybe the current form you would hope to see.

#3 Kiradech Aphibarnrat

Kiradech Aphibarnrat is a surprise entrance into the FedEx St. Jude Classic field this week. Aphibarnrat needed a sponsor exemption to get himself into the field. The 28-year-old Thai golfer has graced his presence on the PGA Tour much more than some may have thought he would have this season. Despite this fact, Aphibarnrat is not necessarily the first player you would think of using in a One and Done pool, and for this reason, the 31st-ranked player in the world more often than not is left as a reserve pick than the actual selection. If you think about the nature of most One and Done pools, you would realize that many people use golfers that they shouldn’t throughout the season. Contests don’t play out this straightforward because there are many variables to consider weekly, but in reality, you shouldn’t be playing anyone outside of the top-50 in the world. If you played it this way, you probably wouldn’t be entirely successful, but it goes to show that people go just a bit too far down the rankings. I really can’t think of any other spot this season I would be wanting to play Aphibarnrat, and this may be as good of an opportunity as any. Aphibarnrat provides high upside and low ownership.

#2 Luke List, Phil Mickelson, or Tony Finau

I never advise guys I have already used. There’s a method behind the madness of a One and Done contest. If someone covering and advising on picks could freely do so, they would select Justin Thomas or Dustin Johnson every week. I could claim they were the best picks on the board, and if I hadn’t already used them, I would have done so this week. That is obviously not how these contests work, and we would have no weekly article under those pretenses, at least not one of fair judgment. That is why I always try and add players I have used already and guys I would consider if I hadn’t already done so. However, for this week, I am going to cheat on those rules, and I will explain why. The FedEx St. Jude Classic is a very weak tournament, and there aren’t enough players who I would happily recommend. I genuinely feel that the three guys mentioned above are all worthy of being potential top-five recommendations. I don’t feel comfortable endorsing any of them as my One and Done pick for the week, but if you haven’t used someone from that list, I think this week could be a great time to do so.

#1 Henrik Stenson

Henrik Stenson comes into the week with five straight top-25 finishes, which includes three top-six results. Stenson reminds me of our One and Done pick, Justin Rose, last week. When Stenson is on, he is one of the best players in the world, and I don’t know if you are going to catch the 42-year-old Sweedish golfer in a better situation all season. In his last 12 rounds compared to the field, Stenson ranks first in strokes gained approach. At some point soon, he will be heading over to Europe for a handful of weeks, which limits our number of opportunities to play him. I would rather catch him when he is in-form than wait and potentially miss out on the hot streak.

 

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One and Done Selection For the Memorial Tournament

2018 Memorial Tournament

Muirfield Village Golf Club – 7,392 Yards – Par 72
Greens: Bentgrass

The Memorial Tournament once again did not disappoint in its strength of the field. Always boasting one of the best compilation of players, Muirfield Village is a perfect setup course for those trying to get prepared for the U.S. Open. It measures just under 7,400 yards and is a relatively long course with THICK rough. Wayward drives are a recipe for disaster at this venue, although the relatively wide fairways make driving accuracy less of a relevant stat. Players will need good sand games to cope for the greenside bunkers all throughout Muirfield Village.

Key Stats:

Strokes Gained Approach – 25%
Par 4 450-500 Yards – 20%
Par 3 175-200 Yards – 15%
Proximity 175-200 Yards – 15%
Sand Saves – 15%
Greens In Regulation Gained – 10%

My OAD Selections for the season so far:

Sony Open
Gary Woodland T7- $193,233

Career Builder Challenge
Chesson Hadley T42- $18,983

Farmers Insurance Open
Tony Finau T6- $239,775

Waste Management Phoenix Open
Webb Simpson MC- $0

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Brandt Snedeker T20- $80,167

Genesis Open
Paul Casey T49- $17,964

The Honda Classic
Alex Noren T3- $448,800

WGC-Mexico
Phil Mickelson 1st- $1,700,000

Valspar Championship
Sergio Garcia 4th- $312,000

Arnold Palmer Invitational
Rickie Fowler T14- $137,950

Corales Puntacana Championship
Emiliano Grillo T50- $7,305

WGC Dell Technologies Match Play
Bubba Watson 1st- $1,700,00

Houston Open
Luke List T24- $54,163

Masters
Jordan Spieth 3rd- $748,000

RBC Heritage
Matt Kuchar T23- $53,823

Valero Texas Open
Adam Scott MC- $0

Wells Fargo Championship
Bryson Dechambeau 4th- $369,600

The Players Championship
Justin Thomas T11- $225,500

AT&T Byron Nelson
Hideki Matsuyama T16- $115,500

Fort Worth Invitational
Adam Hadwin T52- $16,472

Total $- $6,439,235

Screen Shot 2018-05-29 at 4.10.26 PM

Last week was a disaster One and Done selection week for us. Our eventual pick, Adam Hadwin, managed to scrape out a meager T52 showing, giving us a payday of $16,472, but our whole top-five recommendation list was very subpar. We will look for a significant bounce-back effort this week at the Memorial Tournament.

Golfers in the field I have already used: Woodland, Hadley, Finau, Mickelson, Fowler, Grillo, Watson, List, Spieth, Kuchar, Scott, DeChambeau, Thomas, Matsuyama, and Hadwin.

My top-five OAD picks for the Memorial Tournament-
(Any golfer I have used will be eliminated from consideration.)

#5 Jason Dufner

Our defending champion at the Memorial Tournament will start off our top-five list. Jason Dufner put on a ball-striking exhibition last year during his victory at the Memorial Tournament. Dufner opened Thursday and Friday with consecutive seven-under 65 rounds. Going into the weekend, it appeared as if the tournament was all but over, but that is when things got interesting. Dufner shot a five-over 77 on Saturday, letting back in a whole brigade of players, which included Justin Thomas and Rickie Fowler, to name a few. Luckily for Dufner, he found a way to bounce back on Sunday and seal the title. Dufner shot a four-under 68 during his final round, winning by three strokes over Fowler and Anirban Lahiri. Dufner has struggled to find success since his victory last season at Muirfield Village but may be peaking again at the right time. Dufner has produced two top-five finishes in his last four tournaments, which just so happen to be his only top-10 results since his title here last year. In his last 24 rounds compared to the field on Jack Nicklaus-designed courses, Dufner ranks first in greens in regulation and second in strokes gained approach.

#4 Henrik Stenson

Week in and week out, Henrik Stenson has continued to put on a ball-striking demonstration that very few can even come close to matching. After a string of three top-six finishes, the 42-year-old Sweedish golfer relatively disappointed his backers at The Players Championship by providing just a T23 showing. While a share of 23rd-place is nothing to sneeze at, it still was a bit lackluster for the over 40 percent of DraftKings players who played him in GPPs. Stenson should provide a nice rebound for those who are willing to go back to the well, and honestly, I don’t see a reason why he shouldn’t be considered.

#3 Tiger Woods

The five-time champion at the Memorial Tournament will come in at No. 3 this week for me. Woods has had a spectacular return to professional golf. Having made eight of nine cuts, with five top-15 finishes, Woods looks like he is starting to get very close to capturing a title again soon on Tour. The question becomes, “Just how close are we?” I think we are reaching the territory that it very well could happen any week. I refuse to write Woods off at a tournament he has won five times, but I do think his erratic driver and suspect sand game will prevent him from capturing the title this weekend. Still, I expect Woods to produce a top-20 finish here, getting him one step closer to his first title of the season.

#2. Dustin Johnson

Full disclosure on this pick, I will not be using him, but I do think this makes for a unique spot to use Johnson if you are trying to chase down the leaders of your pool. Most people who haven’t used Johnson yet will be waiting to use him at the U.S. Open. I fall right into that same category, but instead of trying to copy the mold and therefore remaining stagnant regardless of how Johnson does, why not set yourself apart and use him a week or two early? The big-hitting American struggled mightily last year at the Memorial Tournament and missed the cut, but in his two prior years, he had a solo third-place finish in 2016 and T13 in 2015. He comes into the week appearing like he is still trying to find his game, but most people fail to realize Johnson has produced 10 straight top-17 finishes.

#1 Justin Rose

I am never a big fan of jumping on a player the week after he has won a tournament. Most of the time you have already missed the boat on his success and are setting yourself up for disappointment. However, I don’t believe this to be the case with Justin Rose. Rose has made eight of 11 career cuts at Muirfield Village, and while a 72 percent cut rate is not overly promising, he also has six top-10 finishes and one victory here. Rose is the kind of player that when he is on, he is almost unbeatable. His current form is spectacular, his course history is as good as anyone’s, and statistically, he grades out in the top-five of my spreadsheet. For all those reasons, I will be using Justin Rose as my OAD pick for the week.

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One and Done Selection For the Fort Worth Invitational

2018 Fort Worth Invitational

Colonial Country Club – 7,209 Yards- Par 70
Greens: Bentgrass

The Fort Worth Invitational dons a star-studded field, yet somehow still lacks a sponsor for the event. Despite no tournament sponsorship, the Fort Worth Invitational is shaping up to be one of the more exciting contests of the year. Colonial Country Club will provide a unique look for the players this week. Narrow fairways and small greens help to neutralize the short layout of the course, which measures only 7,209 yards. Holes 3-5 are called the Horrible Horseshoe, and that is for good reason. It is one of the toughest stretches of golf on the PGA Tour, playing almost 7,000 strokes over par in the last 35 years. In comparison, the rest of the course has played nearly 800 strokes under par during that same period. Because of the compact fairways, accuracy off the tee will be vital. Once you hit the fairway, though, approach shots will only be about 150-175 yards in length on average.

Key Stats for the week:

Strokes Gained Approach- 30%
Strokes Gained Par 4- 15%
Par 4 Scoring 400-450 Yards- 10%
Good Drive Percentage- 18%
Strokes Gained Off The Tee-15%
Proximity 150-175 Yards- 12%

My OAD Selections for the season so far:

Sony Open
Gary Woodland T7- $193,233

Career Builder Challenge
Chesson Hadley T42- $18,983

Farmers Insurance Open
Tony Finau T6- $239,775

Waste Management Phoenix Open
Webb Simpson MC- $0

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Brandt Snedeker T20- $80,167

Genesis Open
Paul Casey T49- $17,964

The Honda Classic
Alex Noren T3- $448,800

WGC-Mexico
Phil Mickelson 1st- $1,700,000

Valspar Championship
Sergio Garcia 4th- $312,000

Arnold Palmer Invitational
Rickie Fowler T14- $137,950

Corales Puntacana Championship
Emiliano Grillo T50- $7,305

WGC Dell Technologies Match Play
Bubba Watson 1st- $1,700,00

Houston Open
Luke List T24- $54,163

Masters
Jordan Spieth 3rd- $748,000

RBC Heritage
Matt Kuchar T23- $53,823

Valero Texas Open
Adam Scott MC- $0

Wells Fargo Championship
Bryson Dechambeau 4th- $369,600

The Players Championship
Justin Thomas T11- $225,500

AT&T Byron Nelson
Hideki Matsuyama T16- $115,500

Total $- $6,422,763

Screen Shot 2018-05-21 at 6.55.02 PM____________________________________________________________________________________________
Last week’s suggestions at the AT&T Byron Nelson
#5 Scott Piercy- T32
#4 Charles Howell- T9
#3 Marc Leishman- 2nd
#2 Branden Grace- T3
#1 Hideki Matsuyama- T16
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Golfers in the field I have already used: Hadley, Simpson, Snedeker, Fowler, Grillo, Spieth, Kuchar, Scott and DeChambeau.

My top-five OAD picks-
(Any golfer I have used will be eliminated from consideration.)
Guys I would consider if I hadn’t already used them: Fowler, Grillo, Kuchar, Scott, and DeChambeau.

#5 Jason Dufner

This will be Dufner’s 10th career appearance at the Fort Worth Invitational. Dufner has made four of his last five cuts at Colonial, which includes three top-10s, two of which are runner-up finishes. In Dufner’s last 50 rounds compared to the field at short courses, he ranks second in strokes gained off the tee, 11th in strokes gained approach and 16th in Par 4 scoring between 400-450 yards. There’s definite volatility to a Jason Dufner OAD selection this week, but anyone who needs to make up ground on the field will have themselves a sneaky pick here. Dufner is projected to be under 10 percent owned on DraftKings. I’d imagine his OAD percentage will be no more than 1-3 percent.

#4 Zach Johnson

Zach Johnson is your “horse for the course” this weekend at the Fort Worth Invitational. Johnson is 12-for-12 in cuts here at Colonial and has amassed $3,510,245 in the process. Johnson is a two-time champion at the event and has five top-10 finishes. In reality, Johnson is your safest bet on this list, despite only coming in fourth in the rankings. I believe this could be your best spot to use him this season and I wouldn’t question anyone thinking about locking him in as their official OAD selection. For me, though, he will be far too popular of a pick and won’t provide as much upside as I would like. If your goal is to guarantee a payday, Johnson is your best selection on the board, but if you are looking for winning equity, I think you can find better options elsewhere.

#3 Xander Schauffele

Xander Schauffele isn’t one of the prototypical names you would expect to play well on a short course. Schauffele is perceived as a bomber, who can be quite erratic off the tee. In fact, Schauffele ranks 77th in his last 24 rounds compared to the field in good-drive percentage. However, stats sometimes don’t tell the whole story. If you look at Schauffele in his last 24 rounds at short courses that don’t require a driver off the tee, you would realize he is an entirely different player. Schauffele ranks 8th in good-drive percentage and 7th in strokes gained off the tee compared to the field. Although Schauffele is without a doubt still a “bomber,” he tends to play better when you take the driver out of his hands. Schauffele has some course experience after last year’s T48 finish and should be close to unowned in all OAD pools. Schauffele will carry some risk and is far from a guarantee to make the cut, but at his 40/1 outright price, according to Vegas, he has winning upside at virtually a non-existent selection percentage.

#2 Chez Reavie

Chez Reavie, who is looking for his first win since 2008, might be the ultimate contrarian selection at Colonial Country Club. After Chez Reavie’s back-to-back second-place finishes at the Waste Management Open and AT&T Pro-Am earlier this season, he hit a wall with five straight finishes outside of the top 50. Two weeks ago, Reavie managed to break out of his drought, finishing in a tie for 30th at the Players Championship. While this is nothing to write home about, it is a step in the right direction. Reavie’s game is suited for short courses, and a lot of his downfall came at venues that were just too long for him. Colonial Country Club plays slightly over 7,200 yards and its length should fit right into Reavie’s wheelhouse. In his last 24 rounds compared to the field on short courses, Reavie ranks first in good-drive percentage. Reavie is considered a long-shot at 80/1 odds, but I believe he has real win equity this weekend. It is entirely possible that nobody will select him in your OAD pool and as a chaser trying to catch the leaders, I would be more than okay with being on an island by myself with Chez Reavie.

#1 Adam Hadwin

Being in second-place in my 623 person OAD pool puts me in a unique spot. There is something to be said about trying to hold onto a top-five position but just like in any sport, holding onto the ball and trying to milk the clock will eventually get you caught. My pick of Adam Hadwin provides reliability but still mixes in win equity, the best of both worlds for me. In Hadwin’s last 24 rounds compared to the field, he ranks first in good-drive percentage, second in strokes gained approach and 16th in Par 4 scoring. He also is tied for the PGA Tour lead with 17 consecutive cuts made. I assume Hadwin is going to be more popular on DraftKings than he is for OAD pools. It is a stacked field, and Hadwin is still just 60/1 to win according to Vegas. It is possible that his ownership percentage may end up being more than I expected it to be, but at the end of the day, a win is a win if Hadwin can get it.

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